from www.fivethirtyeight.com
Obama: Highest Initial Approval For Elected President?
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Barack Obama's favorability ratings have continued to improve as we approach Tuesday's inauguration. But how do they compare to those of his predecessors?The two highest initial, post-inauguration approval ratings as measured by Gallup belong to presidents who took over for others whose terms ended prematurely. About 86 percent of Americans approved of Harry Truman when he took over for FDR. And 77 percent approved Lyndon Johnson when he took over for JFK. The highest initial approval rating for a newly elected president, on the other hand, appears to belong to Kennedy, whom Gallup pegged at 72 percent approval shortly after his inauguration in 1961.Barack Obama has an excellent chance to exceed Kennedy's numbers. The Pollster.com averages show that 70 percent of Americans have a favorable impression of Obama versus 16 percent unfavorable. Although favorability ratings aren't the same thing as approval ratings, they tend to closely track one another. Also, it appears that there may typically be something of a bounce in an incoming president's approval scores immediately after his inauguration, so Obama's numbers may (temporarily) get even better.My guess is that when Gallup comes out with its first post-inauguration approval ratings for Obama later this week, it will show him with about 76 percent approval, 11 percent disapproval and 13 percent uncertain, which would indeed be the best numbers on record for a newly-elected president. At the very least, Obama is virtually assured of starting out on better footing than his two immediate predecessors in the White House, as Bill Clinton had emerged victorious in a three-way race in which he got just 43 percent of the popular vote, and George W. Bush's disputed victory in 2000 had come only after weeks of uncertainty and litigation.
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Popularity doesn't always equal good leadership. Obama has had a major "band-wagon" following and I wouldn't seriously consider any of his approval ratings until at least the middle of the year.
ReplyDeleteI think the landslide election we saw on the 4th of November was a precursor to this approval rating. The people's desire for change was apparent when our countries first black president was elected. Our country proved it's ability to change and continue to remain an open minded democracy. Hopefully our optimism pays off and the new president leads our country well.
ReplyDeleteI took a political science course at a former college entitled "American Presidency". There's a book available by Fred Greenstein "The Presidential Difference: Leadership styles from FDR o George W. Bush". It's a worthy book that generally states a president cannot be evaluated, period until several years after they leave office.
ReplyDeleteMany people have seem to not necessarily support Obama, but come to terms with his victory. As some point, American needs to bond together to move forward. I also don't believe this makes him popular or that his leadership can be discussed, but he has cleared the air for many disappointed people. If that makes him popular, let's hope his popularity only continues to grow within the upcoming months.
There is an ideology of change that the people of the United States crave, that being what President Obama offered in his campaign.
ReplyDeleteI don't think popularity matters all that much at this point in time. He's made promises and has a lot to prove. He was handed a mess. Let's just hope, for our sake, we chose the right man for the job.
I proudly support and congratulate President Barack Obama as well, we are living history this day. I think that's important to realize.
I do not think popularity equals good leadership. A true leader does what they feel is right even if it is not popular at the time. Today was obviously a historic day but the hype must eventually end. I think our media will extend President Obama's honeymoon for several months but sooner or later I hope they will began to hold him acountable for all the promises he has made and if they do, I beleive the ratings will drop. I think he made so many promises that his shoes may now be impossible to fill, time will tell.
ReplyDeleteI do agree in a way, but what president does not promise things they cannot follow threw with? FACT: Politicians lie to get votes. Change will come with time, we are still living in the wake of two world wars. A huge cultural shift took place during and after Vietnam. We are gifted to live in such an important part of history.
ReplyDeleteObama is winning the peoples vote because he is the change we have needed. Yeah it is kind of wrong that some people voted based on his color and not his polices and ideas. However he is right change has came and America has spoken. The United States needed this to happen, a new page has turn and its time to try something new because the old way was not working. Change is just beginning to happen. I hope to see him continue with a second term so people can start to believe.
ReplyDeleteToo bad the majority of people who support Obama only do so because they're sheep and were hoodwinked by the media. Just because he is "popular" doesn't mean he is going to be a great leader. A lot of what is "popular" in America is crap. Popular music, movies, clothing styles, television shows etc. suck, and I wouldn't trust the opinion of the majority of America. The Dems did a great job of portraying McCain/Palin to be either too old to do the job or too ditzy and inexperienced (respectively); meanwhile they forget to mention that Obama hasn't served one full term in the Senate (experience anyone?). And to BrandNew - "Yeah it is kind of wrong that some people voted based on his color and not his policies and ideas." KIND OF WRONG? Seriously? If a white person ran and was "kind of" voted in because of the color of their skin, it would be outrageous and the majority of our nation would be painted as racist! It is RACIST to vote someone in to office because of their skin, whether they are of African, Hispanic, European, Asian, Indian etc. decent. If the majority of America had any idea of how important is it to follow the political scene and engage themselves instead of just watching CNN (sometimes actual news intermixed with Lindsay Lohan's lesbian relationship or whichever celebrity's new baby)the outcome of this election would have been much different.
ReplyDeleteA president's approval rating the day he takes office (i.e., before he has done anything) means approximately zero. Of course Obama has a greater than 50% approval rating... more than 50% of the population just voted him in as the next President of the United States!
ReplyDeleteIf you want to talk about approval rating, lets talk again in a year or two. That is when a president's approval rating will be a little more accurate.
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ReplyDeleteIt sounds to me like some people are just a little bitter about Obama becoming our next president. And a lot of the messages on here are riddled with inaccuracies. There are just as many people who didn't vote for Obama because he was African American as there were people voting for him because he was. So, essentially, those votes just cancel each other out.
ReplyDeleteAnd as far as the comment on pop culture goes, that just doesn't make any sense. Does that mean that if I watch shitty movies and listen to bad music, that I choose the wrong candidate for the presidency too? I just don't see the corelation there.
I'll agree that a president's approval rating before they are even in office doesn't mean much of anything, but have some faith. We gave a republican a chance for the last eight years, and look at what he did with our country. I'm not saying Obama will be the greatest president we've ever had, but let's give him a chance before we jump to a conclusion either way. Thanks to George W., he definitely has his work cut out for him, but how much worse could things get?
Sorry, I should have been more clear there. Just because a person has different tastes in movies music etc, doesn't mean they would choose the wrong candidate. The correlation I see between pop culture and the results of the presidential race is that Obama received more positive coverage and less negative coverage than any of the other candidates by the main media outlets. To me, as most Americans usually take what they see in the news as true and at face value, the coverage of this election was very similar to pop culture. Whatever the news media could find that would generate the most viewers (I.e Sarah Palin's wardrobe cost, pregnant daughter, etc.) received the most attention. At times, outlets like CNN would play the same string of stories, including coverage of the race, alongside news stories dealing with celebrities etc. It's very comparable. I'm not saying Obama will be the best or worst President we've ever had, I'm here too just like everyone else and hope the best for our nation in the next four or eight years, but it shows a clear lack of judgment for a person to not see that many Americans were influenced by the "pop culture" facet of this election and that it had a direct correlation to their voting habits.
ReplyDeleteCould it be that President Obama received more positive media coverage than any of the other candidates, not because CNN had some alterior motive, but because he was a better candidate? Obama simply played the game better than McCain. Specifically, he targeted the youth vote, a very large demographic who usually doesn't exercise their right to vote anyway. And you know what? He won by a significant margin. Not only that, but voter turnout for the 2008 election was higher than it's been in 40 years.
ReplyDeleteSo who cares if CNN airs election coveage right after a piece on celebrity gossip? There's more news out there than just politics, even if it isn't exactly newsworthy. And I'm not trying to say that culture had nothing to do with this election and Obama's win, because it definitely did. Our professor even made a note to write it on the chalkboard the other day: Culture drives politics. But this idea is nothing new. Culture has played a huge role in every presidental election.
But as the culture changes, so do the needs of the people. And when something isn't working (i.e. President Bush, The Iraq War, The Republican Party, etc.), certain changes have to be made again to fit these needs. And those changes have been made, so let's see what happens.
Personaly I voted against Obama because I disagree with his policies and most all of his principles. Race had absolutly nothing at all to do with this decision. Sure you can find people out there who dont want a black president, you can also find people out there who dont want a white president.. what the hell does that have to do with anything..thats life. In our system you are free to cast your vote however you like or even not vote at all. You are free to beleive however you like. But the bottomline is that: the VAST majority of people who oppose Obama, oppose his policies and/or principles. Barack Obama won the election substantialy, and was sworn in as our 44th president. May someone explain to me why we are trying to play the race card??
ReplyDeleteI feel that Obama was the better candidate over John McCain. Not because of his race but, because of what he had to offer America. I feel that he has given many people hope in democracy again. There seems to be this resurgence of patriotism and hope due to Obama's enthusiasm and belief in the American people to change themselves.
ReplyDeleteThe approval ratings are evidence of preception of the "Heroic Presidency."
ReplyDeleteIt is true the Obama’s approval ratings may be slightly inflated during the beginning of his presidency, but I do not view that as a bad thing. The American people are ready for change, carving change. They want government to be more efficient and to be held accountable for its actions. I do not see Obama’s beginning ratings as a bad thing because to me it means that the American people have put their faith in him to make those changes. We are ready to leave the past eight year behind us and head down a new path.
ReplyDeleteHigh approval ratings are nice to have. In recent years, though, the numbers for disapproval ratings have gone up more quickly than they did for previous presidents. This could be due to the quality of the candidates, or it could be a product of a more expansive media. With high expectations at the beginning of his presidency, and such an active media, I fear that disappointment will come more quickly. America is hungry for change, and with people's pocketbooks being pinched tighter and tighter, it can't come fast enough. What I hope this new administration will achieve is a more open line of communication between President Obama and his constituents, as well as a return to a government that is willing to work together, across party lines, to meet the needs of the American people.
ReplyDeleteObama won the election and has a high approval rating because of his oratory skills. Reminds me of how Hitler captivated a whole nation to his way of thinking. We as whites are also not the majority anymore as we are a nation of immigrants to begin with the minority population of the 40'-50's are overtaking us thanks to social programs that gave minorities the money to stay home and reproduce thus creating new dependents on liberal programs so why wouldn't they vote for Obama and give him excellent approval ratings? Obama has President Clinton to thank for our economy today to fix with the NAFTA trade agreements so maybe while Hillary is there in the White House they can fix this HUGE problem. So it's going to be interesting to see the results of his "flowery oratory skills."
ReplyDeleteI guess I dont't understand the idea of approval ratings. This nation elected Obaama to be president, and now all we will do is critique him for the next four years. Mabey there should be an approval rating for the voters, because they are the ones responsible for Obama becoming president. If his approval rating becomes low and Obama loses support from the people the fact is it's partly the voters fault for electing him in the first place and yet the voters are not rated.
ReplyDeleteInitial approval ratings don't mean a whole lot. They just reiterate the fact that he was just elected president and the majority of the people voted for him. Give him about two years and let his policies start to take shape, and then we will see where his approval ratings stand. But this seems to be one of the first presidents in a while in which people have a sense of hope. We are living history with the first African American president and we need to take a look at how far we have come as a nation. It is truly amazing!
ReplyDeleteObama's election was hardly a land-slide; he barely got into the white house. Frankly, I'm not altogether concerned with immediate approval ratings. Let's let the 100 days pays first, get a couple years under his presidency, and lets see if this Republicrat/Demublican really brings on the "change"
ReplyDeleteNew technology (such as this blog site) has allowed for a significance to the approval ratings the president now enjoys. The approval rating in itself has a limited significance. To have a posted voice as to why or why not our new President deserves this rating is the reason for this significance.
ReplyDeleteThe reason I believe that President Obama is able to garner a very high approval rating is that collectively our nation (and world) is placing a good deal of hope in regard to his abilty to become an effective national and world leader.
My hope is that our new President and our congress will utilize the collective uncertainty of our economic future to bring about changes necessary for our nation to resume the stature that the nations around our globe admire and aspire to become.
I agree with a lot of what has been said above in that popularity is a concept that has zero to do with competent leadership. As far as favorable/unfavorable ratings go, one of the reasons that President Obama was elected was that he isn't really a hatable guy, you can't paint him as evil. I think that his ratings won't really mean anything for at least 6 months. The media might finally start winding down the inaugural fawning by then and get back to the business of reporting the news (although it's not out of the realm of possibility that the fawning could just continue straight through his first term, and of course his re-election campaign). I can't imagine that the overwhelming majority of Americans don't want President Obama to do well, even if you disagree with him politically, you still want to see the country succeed. But I would reserve judgement for at least 6 months.
ReplyDeleteWell, from the start, I don’t approve of approval ratings, this early into to the job, anyways. Perhaps it is that I don’t understand approval ratings or why we are so concerned about what other people think of the President. I know that they have been around for a long time, but I can’t seem so wrap my head around its negative effects. I offer two examples or theories rather: 1. Take George W. Bush for example, with the lowest approval ratings ever charted; wouldn’t that degrade, demoralize, and show a force of non-support to cause a person/president not to care about his decisions. 2. As for President Obama with exceedingly high expectation and approval levels, could that not give a sense of trust, and with trust could their come a surge power followed by deceit? So, as I end, I would like to leave you with this: Hitler had approval ratings in the 90s.
ReplyDeleteI think that the high approval ratings are a sign that people are anxious for change. With the economy declining and the war in Iraq dragging on people are looking forward to moving on in a new direction. I agree that his approval ratings will most likely drop as the months go on but expectedly so, you really cant please everyone.
ReplyDeleteWhat can be said about the two top ranking presidents ever to take the helm of our great nation? Both Kennedy and Obama possessd that it factor. That certan charisma,and swagger, that says to the people... I'm here now, It's ok, come follow me. We have this overwhelming sense of that quiet strength, that makes us follow them knowing they have a clear defined vision of where it is we want no need to be as a country, as neighbors, as human beings. The thirst for knowledge and grasp of concepts needed to bring about change in the midst of troubled waters. A sense of ease to the helm of our nation, along with the hope of gentler seas ahead. I admit to the guilt of wondering, "what path would our counrty have taken if Kennedy would have lived?" When I look at Obama I see an Innovator, a Leader, I see the American President. It will be a pleasure watching the new direction he will lead our country to go, though it will not be easy, I know without any doubt under his Leadership along with his first mate Biden, and Pelosi and the new Congress the seas will eventually calm for our nation and and it will be smoother sailing for all of us into the new horizon of tommorow.
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